Current Status and Future Prospects of Animal Protein Production and Consumption in Libya in Light of Fluctuations in Per Capita Disposable Income during the Period (2004–2025)

Abstract

Libya’s food security system faces increasing challenges in securing adequate animal protein due to limited domestic production capacity, high feed costs, low productivity in several livestock activities, population growth, changing consumption patterns, and fluctuations in disposable income and purchasing power. These structural pressures have increased the country’s dependence on imports to satisfy a growing share of domestic demand. Accordingly, the research problem centers on the widening imbalance between domestic animal-protein production and consumption and the inability of local production to respond adequately to changing demand under fluctuating disposable income and purchasing power.

The study aimed to diagnose the current status of Libya’s animal-protein system, examine the implications of fluctuations in disposable income for consumption behavior, identify the major constraints limiting domestic production efficiency, and formulate a forward-looking vision for strengthening food security. Methodologically, the study analyzed production, consumption, per-capita availability, food-gap, self-sufficiency, and import indicators over the 2004–2025 period. General time-trend models were employed to assess the long-term trajectories of production, consumption, per-capita indicators, self-sufficiency, and the animal-protein food gap.

The findings reveal a persistent structural deficit in Libya’s animal-protein system. Average daily per-capita consumption reached 32.1 g, compared with only 23.1 g of domestic production, generating an overall deficit of approximately 9 g per capita per day. The deficit was particularly pronounced for dairy products, at 6.9 g per capita per day, followed by red meat at approximately 1.4 g. Moreover, per-capita imported animal protein increased from 20.65 kg in 2020 to 34.25 kg in 2025, indicating growing dependence on external markets. Trend estimates further showed that domestic production increased by approximately 1.95 thousand tons annually, compared with 1.82 thousand tons for consumption, while the per-capita food gap narrowed by only about 0.11 g annually, indicating that the improvement remains insufficient to fundamentally resolve the structural imbalance.

The study concludes that strengthening Libya’s animal-protein food security requires an integrated approach addressing both production capacity and consumers’ economic access to food rather than continued reliance on imports. It recommends prioritizing the localization of the dairy industry, improving livestock breeds, securing sustainable feed supplies, expanding poultry production and aquaculture, linking food-price policies with social protection mechanisms, and establishing an integrated national database for production, consumption, imports, prices, and income. Such measures could reduce external dependency, strengthen the resilience of domestic food systems, and support a more sustainable balance between animal-protein production and consumption in Libya.