انعكاسات المعضلة الأمنية بين القوى الكبرى في حوض المتوسط على تسوية الأزمة الليبية بعد 2011
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.65405/37ff3t41الملخص
تسعى هذه الدراسة إلى تفسير التنافس المتصاعد بين الولايات المتحدة وروسيا والصين على النفوذ في حوض المتوسط وانعكاساته على تسوية الأزمة الليبية بعد 2011، مستندةً إلى نظرية المعضلة الأمنية منذ بترفيلد وهيرز وجيرفيس، مرورًا بتنقيح تانغ (Tang, 2009)، ووصولًا إلى تفعيلها التطبيقي لدى والت (Walt, 2022). تفترض الدراسة أن تصاعد الحضور العسكري والاقتصادي لهذه القوى لا يعكس بالضرورة نوايا عدوانية متبادلة، بل ينتج عن منطق بنيوي تفرضه الفوضى الدولية، وأن مصادر الغموض الاستراتيجي تتعدد باختلاف طبيعة كل فاعل: فجوة بين الخطاب الرسمي والممارسة لدى واشنطن، ومنطق 'الجبهة الثانية' الاضطراري لدى موسكو بعد فقدان قاعدة طرطوس، و'التغلغل المؤسسي الاقتصادي التراكمي' الذي يصعب تصنيفه لدى بكين. واعتمادًا على المنهج التحليلي الوصفي ووثائق استراتيجية رسمية وأدبيات أكاديمية وتقارير متخصصة موثّقة، تخلص الدراسة إلى أن الأزمة الليبية غدت ساحة اختبار لإعادة ترتيب موازين القوى في جنوب المتوسط، وأن معضلة الأمن بين هذه القوى تتغذى من عدم اليقين الاستراتيجي متعدد المصادر لا صراعًا على غايات متضاربة بالضرورة.
التنزيلات
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